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Neural networks have been
studied since the 1960s and are still a rapidly advancing
field of study. The use of a neural network is an important
non-linear method for projecting future values based on
historical data (non-linear meaning "not using conventional
linear statistics").
In a demonstration application
a 100 day history of both the JSE and the NYSE was used
to predict the price of the JSE for the following three
days.
We have developed
a precision tool-kit for constructing a wide array of neural
networks that can be applied to forecasting problems in various
applications.
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Potential applications
for forecasting are countless, however there is always the
requirement that enough of the right kind of training data
be available. This would include historical values of the
series to be projected, as well as any other data series
that may have had significant impact on its values.
A company with a complete
sales history would be in a position to analyse both short
term cyclical trends and long term market trends, thereby
forecasting sales for the next period based on past performance.
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